IsTrue <- function(x) { !is.na(x) & x }
load("_data/LSCMWG_working_class.RData")
df <- new
RunModel <- function(equation, data = df) {
  fit <- eval(bquote(lm(.(equation), data = data)))
  print(list(
    classical = summary(fit), ## classical SEs
    robust = lmtest::coeftest(fit, vcov = sandwich::vcovHC(fit, type = "HC1")) ## CRSEs;  Stata robust default
    # can also use: coeftest(fit, vcov = vcovCL, cluster = ~ country)
  ))
  invisible(fit)
}

Life expectancy regressions

Column 1
fit <- RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + 
##     deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + 
##     v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -17.8290  -1.0988   0.2661   1.5589  17.1606 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    2.343e+01  7.749e+00   3.023  0.00293 ** 
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995                         -2.995e-01  1.013e-01  -2.955  0.00362 ** 
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                              -6.072e-02  2.572e-02  -2.360  0.01952 *  
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         5.084e-02  8.804e-03   5.775 4.15e-08 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995          5.600e-02  3.352e-02   1.670  0.09687 .  
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.658e-01  2.165e-01  -0.766  0.44494    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015                   4.202e-05  2.336e-05   1.799  0.07394 .  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015              4.141e+00  1.320e+00   3.137  0.00205 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3.544 on 153 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4853, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4617 
## F-statistic: 20.61 on 7 and 153 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)                                    2.3429e+01  1.2767e+01  1.8351 0.068438 . 
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995                         -2.9953e-01  1.6941e-01 -1.7680 0.079046 . 
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                              -6.0716e-02  2.4995e-02 -2.4291 0.016293 * 
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         5.0843e-02  2.0397e-02  2.4926 0.013745 * 
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995          5.5995e-02  3.5168e-02  1.5922 0.113396   
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.6578e-01  6.7326e-02 -2.4624 0.014911 * 
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015                   4.2023e-05  1.7857e-05  2.3533 0.019881 * 
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015              4.1414e+00  1.4297e+00  2.8967 0.004324 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
df$samplelife <- ifelse(df$country %in% 
                        na.omit(get_all_vars(fit$call$formula, data = df, country = country))[, "country"], 1, 0)
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015)
Column 2 (no lag DV)
RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + 
##     deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + 
##     v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -16.3552  -1.2498   0.0991   1.5124  19.4721 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    5.670e-01  1.102e+00   0.514  0.60772    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                              -1.306e-01  1.263e-02 -10.344  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         4.790e-02  8.862e-03   5.405 2.42e-07 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995          6.071e-02  3.417e-02   1.777  0.07760 .  
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.933e-01  2.185e-01  -0.885  0.37766    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015                   3.453e-05  2.348e-05   1.470  0.14349    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995              4.177e+00  1.267e+00   3.297  0.00121 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3.595 on 154 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4669, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4462 
## F-statistic: 22.48 on 6 and 154 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    5.6701e-01  1.2480e+00  0.4543 0.6502340    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                              -1.3061e-01  3.6384e-02 -3.5899 0.0004442 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         4.7897e-02  2.1364e-02  2.2419 0.0263953 *  
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995          6.0715e-02  3.3979e-02  1.7868 0.0759315 .  
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.9331e-01  6.2826e-02 -3.0769 0.0024765 ** 
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015                   3.4528e-05  1.7422e-05  1.9819 0.0492738 *  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995              4.1772e+00  1.4694e+00  2.8427 0.0050796 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
Column 3 (prediction)
RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + 
##     deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -17.596  -1.361   0.251   1.778  16.258 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                    Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       21.331034   7.387262   2.888 0.004410 ** 
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995             -0.259617   0.095954  -2.706 0.007542 ** 
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -0.059649   0.024596  -2.425 0.016394 *  
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             0.045217   0.008549   5.289 3.91e-07 ***
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  3.969809   1.159118   3.425 0.000778 ***
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995     0.031368   0.013996   2.241 0.026366 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3.487 on 163 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4832, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4674 
## F-statistic: 30.48 on 5 and 163 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                    Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)                       21.331034  11.160371  1.9113 0.057718 . 
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995             -0.259617   0.147463 -1.7606 0.080190 . 
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -0.059649   0.024588 -2.4260 0.016359 * 
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             0.045217   0.017548  2.5768 0.010858 * 
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  3.969809   1.276309  3.1104 0.002206 **
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995     0.031368   0.018961  1.6543 0.099992 . 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995)
# RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995)
Column 4 (performance version)
RunModel(perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ perf_imr_wpp_avg_1995 + perf_asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ perf_imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     perf_asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + 
##     pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -16.4936  -1.1287  -0.0289   1.7552  10.0934 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                         Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                           -1.906e+00  6.172e-01  -3.088  0.00239 ** 
## perf_imr_wpp_avg_1995                 -3.629e-02  1.397e-02  -2.598  0.01029 *  
## perf_asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995            4.284e-02  8.270e-03   5.181 6.82e-07 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  7.355e-02  3.155e-02   2.331  0.02103 *  
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995                 -2.267e-05  2.462e-05  -0.921  0.35870    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015           2.305e-05  2.064e-05   1.117  0.26583    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995      3.287e+00  1.096e+00   2.998  0.00317 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3.3 on 154 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2018, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1707 
## F-statistic: 6.488 on 6 and 154 DF,  p-value: 4.039e-06
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                          Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                           -1.9058e+00  7.9762e-01 -2.3893 0.0180890 *  
## perf_imr_wpp_avg_1995                 -3.6290e-02  2.3829e-02 -1.5229 0.1298379    
## perf_asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995            4.2844e-02  1.2650e-02  3.3868 0.0008977 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  7.3546e-02  3.3890e-02  2.1701 0.0315298 *  
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995                 -2.2669e-05  2.5910e-05 -0.8749 0.3829864    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015           2.3055e-05  1.4448e-05  1.5957 0.1126032    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995      3.2867e+00  1.1131e+00  2.9528 0.0036426 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ perf_imr_wpp_avg_1995 + perf_asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
no health variables (not reported)
## no health variables (not reported)
RunModel(life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -15.043  -1.717  -0.084   1.424  36.313 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    12.6696     1.0387  12.198  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                    -8.9998     1.3132  -6.853 1.15e-10 ***
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015  -0.5068     0.2503  -2.024   0.0444 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4.184 on 177 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2149, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2061 
## F-statistic: 24.23 on 2 and 177 DF,  p-value: 5.007e-10
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                   12.669648   1.267039  9.9994 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -8.999765   1.435136 -6.2710 2.666e-09 ***
## deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -0.506756   0.072104 -7.0281 4.361e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
cor(df[df$samplelife == 1, c("life_exp_wpp_avg_1995", "imr_wpp_avg_1995")])
##                       life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 imr_wpp_avg_1995
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995             1.0000000        0.9620378
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  0.9620378        1.0000000
cor(df[df$samplelife == 1, c("v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015", "v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995")])
##                                   v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015                         1.0000000                         0.9130576
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995                         0.9130576                         1.0000000
cor(df[df$samplelife == 1, c("perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015", "life_exp_wpp_avg_1995")])
##                                       perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 life_exp_wpp_avg_1995
## perf_life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015                             1.0000000             0.0764723
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995                                             0.0764723             1.0000000

IMR regressions

Base model
fit <- RunModel(imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + 
##     v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -32.337  -3.570   0.613   4.866  40.519 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -1.277e+00  3.060e+00  -0.417   0.6769    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.282e-01  3.453e-02 -18.192  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.161e-01  2.426e-02   4.788  3.9e-06 ***
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995             -4.135e-05  7.747e-05  -0.534   0.5943    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015       5.380e-05  6.325e-05   0.851   0.3963    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.619e+00  3.371e+00   1.667   0.0975 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.689 on 155 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8237, Adjusted R-squared:  0.818 
## F-statistic: 144.8 on 5 and 155 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                      Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -1.2773e+00  2.8803e+00 -0.4434   0.65806    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.2825e-01  7.8736e-02 -7.9792 3.054e-13 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.1614e-01  4.6496e-02  2.4978   0.01354 *  
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995             -4.1348e-05  7.0342e-05 -0.5878   0.55751    
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015       5.3799e-05  4.0928e-05  1.3145   0.19063    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.6189e+00  3.1308e+00  1.7947   0.07465 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
car::vif(fit)
##                  imr_wpp_avg_1995            asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995      pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 
##                          3.446330                          2.782918                          1.650908                          1.259310                          1.454765
RunModel(imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -32.121  -3.993   0.460   5.182  40.299 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -1.888e+00  2.831e+00  -0.667    0.506    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.319e-01  3.376e-02 -18.717  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.139e-01  2.382e-02   4.780 4.03e-06 ***
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015       4.956e-05  6.260e-05   0.792    0.430    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.334e+00  3.320e+00   1.606    0.110    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.667 on 156 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8233, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8188 
## F-statistic: 181.8 on 4 and 156 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                      Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -1.8883e+00  2.6058e+00 -0.7247   0.46975    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.3193e-01  7.6877e-02 -8.2200 7.381e-14 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.1387e-01  4.6518e-02  2.4478   0.01548 *  
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015       4.9558e-05  3.5726e-05  1.3872   0.16737    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.3340e+00  3.0060e+00  1.7745   0.07794 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
RunModel(imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -32.663  -3.519   0.512   4.912  40.757 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -2.885e-01  2.828e+00  -0.102    0.919    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.231e-01  3.398e-02 -18.339  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.181e-01  2.412e-02   4.895 2.43e-06 ***
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995             -3.307e-05  7.678e-05  -0.431    0.667    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.266e+00  3.342e+00   1.576    0.117    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.681 on 156 degrees of freedom
##   (40 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8228, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8183 
## F-statistic: 181.2 on 4 and 156 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                      Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       -2.8854e-01  2.6407e+00 -0.1093   0.91313    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                  -6.2314e-01  7.8195e-02 -7.9690 3.151e-13 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.1809e-01  4.6661e-02  2.5308   0.01237 *  
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995             -3.3070e-05  5.3392e-05 -0.6194   0.53657    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995  5.2659e+00  2.9700e+00  1.7730   0.07818 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
cor(df[df$samplelife == 1, c("pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995", "pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015")])
##                              pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995 pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015
## pc_rgdpe_pwt_avg_1995                      1.00000                      0.33888
## pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015               0.33888                      1.00000
Prediction model
RunModel(imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -32.523  -2.572   0.160   4.370  46.318 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)             1.82430    1.28442   1.420    0.157    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995       -0.58266    0.02761 -21.104  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995  0.09618    0.02192   4.388 1.96e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.568 on 177 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8172, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8151 
## F-statistic: 395.6 on 2 and 177 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                         Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)             1.824303   0.923965  1.9744   0.04989 *  
## imr_wpp_avg_1995       -0.582661   0.067295 -8.6583 2.896e-15 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995  0.096178   0.044498  2.1614   0.03201 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
RunModel(imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995, data = df[df$samplelife == 1, ])
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -33.028  -2.607   0.700   4.312  42.219 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)             2.38937    1.35303   1.766   0.0793 .  
## imr_wpp_avg_1995       -0.60583    0.03027 -20.013  < 2e-16 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995  0.11343    0.02366   4.794 3.75e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.697 on 158 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:   0.82,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.8177 
## F-statistic: 359.8 on 2 and 158 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                         Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)             2.389371   0.934687  2.5563   0.01152 *  
## imr_wpp_avg_1995       -0.605829   0.071714 -8.4478 1.827e-14 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995  0.113425   0.047756  2.3751   0.01874 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

MYS regressions

Column 1 (base model)
fit <- RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + 
##     deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.083964 -0.014214  0.000344  0.016428  0.068561 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.301e-01  9.566e-03  13.602  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -5.309e-02  1.051e-02  -5.053 1.16e-06 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.486e-05  4.290e-05   2.211   0.0284 *  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015             -2.219e-02  8.237e-03  -2.694   0.0078 ** 
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995                 4.931e-05  9.591e-05   0.514   0.6079    
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.248e-03  1.720e-03  -0.725   0.4693    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02303 on 163 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2795, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2574 
## F-statistic: 12.65 on 5 and 163 DF,  p-value: 2.192e-10
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.3011e-01  1.2591e-02 10.3339 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -5.3095e-02  1.3295e-02 -3.9935  9.83e-05 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.4858e-05  5.7849e-05  1.6397  0.102987    
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015             -2.2189e-02  6.9661e-03 -3.1854  0.001733 ** 
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995                 4.9310e-05  3.5408e-05  1.3926  0.165634    
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -1.2478e-03  1.2749e-03 -0.9788  0.329145    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
df$samplemys <- ifelse(df$country %in% na.omit(get_all_vars(fit$call$formula, data = df, country = country))[, "country"], 1, 0)
## (checks)
RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -0.08353 -0.01386  0.00069  0.01626  0.06934 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                        1.292e-01  9.326e-03  13.850  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995       -5.199e-02  1.027e-02  -5.064 1.09e-06 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             9.828e-05  4.249e-05   2.313  0.02197 *  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 -2.192e-02  8.194e-03  -2.675  0.00823 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02293 on 165 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2768, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2637 
## F-statistic: 21.05 on 3 and 165 DF,  p-value: 1.345e-11
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                      Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                        1.2916e-01  1.2291e-02 10.5084 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995       -5.1985e-02  1.2989e-02 -4.0023 9.459e-05 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             9.8276e-05  5.6912e-05  1.7268  0.086076 .  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 -2.1920e-02  6.9013e-03 -3.1762  0.001781 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.078163 -0.016189  0.001554  0.016851  0.069759 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.279e-01  9.258e-03  13.820  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -6.585e-02  9.129e-03  -7.214 1.56e-11 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.255e-05  4.168e-05   2.221   0.0277 *  
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -8.728e-04  1.603e-03  -0.544   0.5869    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02293 on 176 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2542, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2415 
## F-statistic: 19.99 on 3 and 176 DF,  p-value: 3.371e-11
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.2795e-01  1.2066e-02 10.6042 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -6.5854e-02  1.1572e-02 -5.6907 5.194e-08 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.2545e-05  5.4912e-05  1.6853    0.0937 .  
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -8.7276e-04  1.3652e-03 -0.6393    0.5235    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.077979 -0.016883  0.001943  0.016865  0.070424 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     1.267e-01  9.122e-03  13.889  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995    -6.449e-02  8.906e-03  -7.241 1.34e-11 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          9.376e-05  4.164e-05   2.252   0.0256 *  
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995  2.046e-05  8.951e-05   0.229   0.8194    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02294 on 176 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2531, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2404 
## F-statistic: 19.89 on 3 and 176 DF,  p-value: 3.801e-11
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                   Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     1.2670e-01  1.1964e-02 10.5898 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995    -6.4488e-02  1.1352e-02 -5.6807 5.456e-08 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          9.3755e-05  5.4699e-05  1.7140   0.08829 .  
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995  2.0464e-05  4.8998e-05  0.4176   0.67672    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + 
##     deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.083805 -0.014330  0.000761  0.016245  0.068666 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.303e-01  9.539e-03  13.657  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -5.317e-02  1.048e-02  -5.072 1.06e-06 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.650e-05  4.269e-05   2.261  0.02509 *  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015             -2.208e-02  8.215e-03  -2.688  0.00794 ** 
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -9.392e-04  1.608e-03  -0.584  0.56009    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02298 on 164 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2783, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2607 
## F-statistic: 15.81 on 4 and 164 DF,  p-value: 5.775e-11
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                                  Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                                    1.3028e-01  1.2523e-02 10.4032 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995                   -5.3166e-02  1.3242e-02 -4.0150 9.029e-05 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995                         9.6505e-05  5.7422e-05  1.6806  0.094740 .  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015             -2.2080e-02  6.9366e-03 -3.1831  0.001744 ** 
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 -9.3920e-04  1.2154e-03 -0.7728  0.440770    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
cor(df[df$samplemys == 1, c("deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995", "deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015")])
##                                               deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995                                     1.0000000                                     0.3470914
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015                      0.3470914                                     1.0000000
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015)
Column 2 (prediction model)
RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + 
##     deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.084351 -0.012733  0.000389  0.016584  0.069970 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                        1.272e-01  9.247e-03  13.751  < 2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995       -4.772e-02  1.035e-02  -4.613 7.97e-06 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.006e-04  4.217e-05   2.384 0.018250 *  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 -2.648e-02  7.891e-03  -3.356 0.000983 ***
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995    -1.291e-05  8.929e-05  -0.145 0.885214    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.02272 on 164 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2942, Adjusted R-squared:  0.277 
## F-statistic: 17.09 on 4 and 164 DF,  p-value: 9.832e-12
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                      Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                        1.2716e-01  1.2558e-02 10.1259 < 2.2e-16 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995       -4.7719e-02  1.3014e-02 -3.6667 0.0003316 ***
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995             1.0055e-04  5.7392e-05  1.7521 0.0816323 .  
## v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 -2.6482e-02  6.7158e-03 -3.9432 0.0001189 ***
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995    -1.2910e-05  4.5157e-05 -0.2859 0.7753180    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
# auxilliary checks
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + deaths_civilians_int_rate_1995)
# RunModel(mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995)

ASFR regressions

Column 3 (base model)
RunModel(asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_partip_cumulative1996_2015)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_partip_cumulative1996_2015, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -34.947  -7.569  -1.213   7.850  61.841 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     16.15559    4.26705   3.786 0.000214 ***
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                 0.13568    0.04675   2.902 0.004215 ** 
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          -0.26871    0.03566  -7.536 3.04e-12 ***
## v2x_partip_cumulative1996_2015 -16.52370    6.89169  -2.398 0.017618 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.91 on 165 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.354,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.3423 
## F-statistic: 30.14 on 3 and 165 DF,  p-value: 1.368e-15
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                  Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     16.155591   4.044070  3.9949 9.732e-05 ***
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                 0.135679   0.055097  2.4625   0.01482 *  
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          -0.268709   0.040384 -6.6538 4.019e-10 ***
## v2x_partip_cumulative1996_2015 -16.523701   6.488711 -2.5465   0.01179 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Column 4 (prediction model)
RunModel(asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_partip_cumulative1991_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995 + v2x_partip_cumulative1991_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -38.714  -7.863  -0.857   7.645  59.512 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     16.14403    3.95810   4.079 7.03e-05 ***
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                 0.15314    0.04838   3.165  0.00185 ** 
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          -0.27597    0.03584  -7.701 1.18e-12 ***
## v2x_partip_cumulative1991_1995 -17.71843    6.70339  -2.643  0.00900 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.85 on 165 degrees of freedom
##   (32 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3586, Adjusted R-squared:  0.347 
## F-statistic: 30.76 on 3 and 165 DF,  p-value: 7.587e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                  Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     16.144032   4.283983  3.7685 0.0002283 ***
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                 0.153138   0.057886  2.6455 0.0089456 ** 
## asfr_adol_wpp_avg_1995          -0.275974   0.040473 -6.8188 1.651e-10 ***
## v2x_partip_cumulative1991_1995 -17.718429   7.474768 -2.3704 0.0189219 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Conflict regressions

Column 1
RunModel(conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ life_exp_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -14.1922  -1.3876  -0.4345   0.2877  17.2186 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                       Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                            7.68880    2.05921   3.734 0.000254 ***
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995                 -0.10267    0.03068  -3.347 0.000998 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.40726    0.03704  10.994  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4.048 on 177 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4707, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4647 
## F-statistic: 78.69 on 2 and 177 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                       Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                            7.68880    1.93968  3.9640 0.0001068 ***
## life_exp_wpp_avg_1995                 -0.10267    0.02841 -3.6139 0.0003929 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.40726    0.05776  7.0509 3.839e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Column 2
RunModel(conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ imr_wpp_avg_1995 + 
##     conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -14.1482  -1.3054  -0.2777   0.1051  17.0902 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                        Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                           -0.250173   0.477456  -0.524 0.600955    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                      -0.026464   0.007677  -3.447 0.000707 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.404209   0.037132  10.886  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4.041 on 177 degrees of freedom
##   (21 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4726, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4666 
## F-statistic: 79.29 on 2 and 177 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                         Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                           -0.2501728  0.3652536 -0.6849 0.4942846    
## imr_wpp_avg_1995                      -0.0264636  0.0073553 -3.5979 0.0004161 ***
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.4042088  0.0580715  6.9605 6.362e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Column 3
RunModel(conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = conflict_internal_cumulative1996_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + 
##     conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -13.9737  -1.2889  -0.3448   0.0648  16.6845 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                       Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                            4.16612    1.07575   3.873  0.00015 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995           -4.17921    1.29661  -3.223  0.00151 ** 
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.40454    0.03714  10.893  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 4.026 on 180 degrees of freedom
##   (18 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4698, Adjusted R-squared:  0.464 
## F-statistic: 79.76 on 2 and 180 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                        Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                            4.166124   1.183654  3.5197 0.0005472 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995           -4.179210   1.398431 -2.9885 0.0031951 ** 
## conflict_internal_cumulative1989_1995  0.404539   0.059527  6.7959 1.523e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Column 4
RunModel(deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = deaths_civilians_int_rate_cumulative1996_2015 ~ 
##     mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995, data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -0.4567 -0.2222 -0.0769 -0.0265 16.2784 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)                   0.6331     0.3042   2.081   0.0388 *
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995  -0.6241     0.3853  -1.620   0.1070  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1.242 on 181 degrees of freedom
##   (18 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.01429,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.008846 
## F-statistic: 2.624 on 1 and 181 DF,  p-value: 0.107
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)                  0.63309    0.36871  1.7170  0.08768 .
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 -0.62414    0.37190 -1.6783  0.09502 .
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Column 5
RunModel(deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 ~ mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995)
## $classical
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = deaths_civilians_osv_rate_cumulative1996_2015 ~ 
##     mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995 + deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995, 
##     data = data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -4.3542 -0.3939 -0.0378  0.0785  6.1307 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     1.358358   0.247380   5.491 1.35e-07 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995    -1.476560   0.312159  -4.730 4.52e-06 ***
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995  0.019212   0.003911   4.912 2.01e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1.004 on 180 degrees of freedom
##   (18 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2188, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2101 
## F-statistic:  25.2 on 2 and 180 DF,  p-value: 2.24e-10
## 
## 
## $robust
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                                 Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                     1.358358   0.380550  3.5695 0.0004587 ***
## mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_1995    -1.476560   0.426069 -3.4655 0.0006616 ***
## deaths_civilians_osv_rate_1995  0.019212   0.017189  1.1177 0.2651981    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Non-regression evidence

Life expectancy
hist(df$life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015) 

summary(df$life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
## -10.430   3.678   4.985   5.835   7.495  44.000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3389  1.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995[df$life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.3])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2778  0.7500  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2278  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995[df$life_exp_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.3])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
## 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.05556 0.00000 1.00000      21
IMR
hist(df$imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015)

summary(df$imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  -2.540   6.106  14.768  22.861  32.947 156.846      21
summary(df$class_low_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3389  1.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995[df$imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.71])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
## 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.05556 0.00000 1.00000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2278  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995[df$imr_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.71])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3889  1.0000  1.0000      21
MYS
hist(df$mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015)

summary(df$mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015)
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max.     NA's 
## -0.02839  0.05327  0.06954  0.07109  0.08682  0.14829       18
summary(df$class_low_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3389  1.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995[df$mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 < -0.00437])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##       1       1       1       1       1       1      18
summary(df$class_upp_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2278  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995[df$mys_age_ratio_ihme_avg_growth1995_2015 < -0.00437])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##       0       0       0       0       0       0      18
ASFR
hist(df$asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015)

summary(df$asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
## -12.038   9.311  19.250  22.539  31.081  91.781      21
summary(df$class_low_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3389  1.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995[df$asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.7085])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.1667  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2278  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995[df$asfr_adol_wpp_avg_growth1995_2015 < 2.7085])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3889  1.0000  1.0000      21
GDP growth
hist(df$pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015)

summary(df$pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015) 
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  -29368    1863    6308    9327   12791  121007      31
summary(df$class_low_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.3389  1.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_low_1995[df$pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 < 144]) 
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##     0.0     1.0     1.0     0.8     1.0     1.0      31
summary(df$class_upp_1995)
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##  0.0000  0.0000  0.0000  0.2278  0.0000  1.0000      21
summary(df$class_upp_1995[df$pc_rgdpe_avg_growth1995_2015 < 144])
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's 
##       0       0       0       0       0       0      31
Polyarchy
df$authority <- df$v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1996_2015 - df$v2x_polyarchy_cumulative1991_1995
hist(df$authority)

summary(df$authority)
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max.     NA's 
## -0.27760  0.00100  0.03005  0.05464  0.09515  0.44665       32